Party vote
Each slider is independentOther registered parties
General electorates
64 seats · pick a winner for eachMāori electorates
7 seatsMāori electorates often decide overhang. A party that wins more of these (plus any general electorates) than its party vote entitles it to keeps them all, and the House grows. Te Pāti Māori's 2026 list has a single candidate, so if its party vote earns more seats than its electorates plus one, the extra seats stay vacant.
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Projection Estimate
Likely final preliminary seats, from simulations of the uncounted voting places. Bars show the middle 80% of outcomes; the black tick is the median.
How the projection works
Each simulation starts from the votes counted so far. Party-vote shares wobble by an amount that shrinks as more voting places report (about ±3 points at 0% counted, falling to zero at 100%). In each electorate that has started counting, the current margin is extended to the uncounted share with a swing of up to about ±10 points that also shrinks as counting progresses. Electorates with no results yet start from the notional 2023 result, shifted by the national change in the two leading parties' party vote. Every simulation is run through the same Electoral Act calculator as the main page. This is an estimate, not an official result: advance votes are counted first and can differ from election-day votes.
Special votes Estimate
Electorate calls
How seats are called
Each electorate gets one of these labels. They're this site's calls, not the Electoral Commission's: the Commission declares winners only with the official result on 27 November.
- Early count: under 25% of the electorate's voting places counted. Shown, never called.
- Leading: ahead, but not by enough to call.
- Likely: at least half the voting places counted and the lead holds in 90% or more of the projection's simulations, including an allowance for special votes.
- Projected winner: the lead is bigger than 30% of the ordinary votes still to count (a generous estimate), plus 1,500 votes in a general electorate or 2,500 in a Māori electorate for special votes. The trailing candidate would have to win the rest of the count by more than 30 points and then gain more from specials than any candidate did in 2023 (431 votes in a general seat, 1,021 in a Māori seat).
- Too close to call: every voting place counted, but the lead is within that special-vote allowance. Special votes decide. On 2023's election-night figures, 16 seats were in this group, including all four that specials overturned.
- Elected: official result declared.
In the chamber and on the map, projected seats are solid, likely seats slightly faded, leading and early seats faded, and too-close seats have a dashed outline.
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Seats
How these seats were calculated
Parliament
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Tick the parties in government. They sit on the Speaker's right; everyone else sits in opposition.